Doubling time in Corona virus infections worsens to 11 days. Spurt in active cases

New Delhi: The rate of growth in number of active COVID-19 cases has become faster now. It is growing at the rate of 6.6% now. It will make the number of infected cases double in just 11 days at this rate, since it has made the doubling time shorter now.

Corona virus infections

The doubling time was previously 15 days. It was so on May 2nd this year. That time the growth rate of COVID-19 infected cases was about 4.8%. This data analysis was done by Economist Mrs. Shamika Ravi. She was previously a part of Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council.

Mrs. Ravi tweets every day to update her statistical analysis. It is widely followed in social media platforms. Government has used her slides on many occasions as well.

This rising trend is driven by rising concerns regarding states such as Maharashtra, West Bengal, Gujarat, Delhi, and Tamil Nadu. The infections in these stats are in the worrying levels. The mortality rates in these states are increasing. There is no specific strategy for tracing COVID-19 contacts or testing Corona virus infected persons, as per Mrs. Ravi.

Mrs. Shamika Ravi pointed at varying rates of testing when she was speaking in the Kasargod district of Kerala state. 100 people came out positive when 20,000 samples were tested there. But in Mumbai 100 positive cases came out after testing only 6,000 cases.

According to her, a big second wave is coming in several states. It has growing concerns in the states of Gujarat, Delhi and Tamil Nadu. Maharashtra tops in the entire list. Here the case load is alarmingly high and is also growing at an alarming rate.

Government claims that the doubling rate is improving with figures taken for all cases, not just the active ones. The National COVID-19 death rates per million was 1.3, where as Maharashtra and Gujarat have more than 5 from April 25 to May 5, 2020.

She said that It is a combination of Containment, contact tracing and testing that will help to flatten the curve. If the containment and contact tracing is poor, active cases will keep on rising. The states have to a formulate a strategy and ensure that this strategy is strictly implemented.

So far, the government says the doubling rate is rising with the figures taken for all cases and not only the active ones, as in Mrs. Ravi’s analysis.

She further said that Maharashtra is failing badly, and she feared that it will impact the national average badly. Mrs Ravi further underlined that states will have to focus on contact tracing and identify people, who might have been infected through other positive cases. The states must also ensure clinical management to control a wider spread of Corona virus infection.

The Health Ministry also has raised its concern about the state of Corona infection rising rate in some specified states. It said that these states are not doing adequate surveillance, contact tracing and reporting of positive cases. It leads to the delay in clinical management and rising the number of deaths due to corona infection.

The Central government has sent public health teams to 20 districts to ensure such lacunas are attended to.